Methodology

Each song lists a fixed percentage of its master royalties (the recording's earnings from streams, downloads and sync, net of distribution fees) for a set term or the life of the copyright. That slice is split into equal shares. The artist or label keeps the copyright, the master and creative control. A share is a right to income, nothing else.

We project how many streams a song will get, turn streams into royalties, and discount them back to today. The answer is a range, not a single number.

1. Two parts. Daily streams are a launch decline plus a long tail. We fit both to the song's full history, using weekly averages, not just the last few weeks.
2. Tail depends on age. A young song has too little history to show how much of it is tail, so we blend the fit with an age prior. Older songs have more tail, and the tail fades more slowly. At 2 weeks about 31% of streams are tail, fading 12% a year. At 1 year, 47% and 9%. At 7 years, 84% and 4%.
3. Royalties. Each stream earns about $0.003 for an independent master owner after distributor fees, multiplied by the song's listed royalty percentage.
4. Discounting. Cash flows are discounted at 12% a year, and delayed 3 months because streaming services pay in arrears. “Life of copyright” terms are valued over 25 years; later cash is close to worthless after discounting.
5. A range, P10 to P90. P50 is the middle estimate. P10 and P90 are the low and high ends of a likely range. The range is wide for a new song and shrinks as it ages and as the fit gets closer to recent weeks.
6. Confidence comes from the width of that range: high when it is narrow, low when it is wide.
7. The market maker anchors on P50. When the range is wide it quotes less size and wider spreads, and when it is very wide it stops quoting.
8. Before release there are no streams to fit, so the estimate starts from the artist's monthly listeners and always carries a wide range.

Streaming services report and pay distributors monthly, and the distributor statement arrives about 45 to 75 days after the month ends. Fadlib bridges that gap in four steps:

• Estimate daily. Each night we multiply the previous day's streams by the per-stream rate and credit every holder's accrual. That's the meter you see ticking.
• Record share-days. Holdings are snapshotted nightly. A month's royalties belong to whoever held during that month, in proportion to stream-weighted days held. Selling never forfeits royalties you already earned.
• Predict. Each upcoming payout shows a date and a range. The range starts at ±15% and narrows to two standard deviations of the song's past actual-to-estimate ratio once it has three statements.
• True up. When the real statement arrives we pay the actual amount, show it next to the estimate, recoup any Instant Royalties advance, and withhold tax where the law requires (24% backup withholding without a tax form on file).

Optional Instant Royalties advance 75% of the estimate weekly to eligible holders (held 30+ days, no open surveillance alert on the song). If a statement comes in lower, the shortfall carries forward against future royalties; cash already paid is never clawed back.

• Order book. Limit and market orders match by price, then time, at the resting order's price. Takers pay 0.5%. Orders that would trade with yourself cancel the older one.
• Price bands. Orders more than ±50% from the last price are rejected, so a typo can't move a thin book.
• Volatility pauses. A trade more than 20% away from the price 15 minutes earlier (or the last close) pauses the song for 10 minutes. Orders stay on the book and trading resumes automatically.
• Takedown halts. If a recording disappears from streaming services, its stock halts until the distributor confirms what happened.
• Liquidity. A platform market maker quotes a small ladder around a reference that is 70% last price and 30% fair value. It never moves its quotes more than 15% from the last trade.
• Surveillance. Automated rules flag wash trading, pump-and-dump posts, artists trading around their own updates, rapid deposit-to-withdrawal, structuring and shared withdrawal wallets for human review.

Indices (ENCX, RAPX, POPX, ALTX) are market-cap-weighted baskets rebased to 1,000. They're published for reference; a tradable index product needs a separate regulatory structure.

Pressings are collectible cards, one per song you own. The serial is your place in line (the IPO cohort is the first pressing). Tiers are earned by rank among fans, never by chance: Dubplate for the #1 fan or the artist, Test pressing for the top 10 (top 5% while a song is young), White label for the top 100 (top 15%), Colour for the top quarter or six months held, and Black for everyone else.

Fair value is an estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation. Streams can collapse, rates per stream vary by country and service, distributors can be late, and a song can be removed. Prices can stay far from fair value for a long time. Read the risk disclosure before you buy.